3 Key Takeaways:
- Growth is the biggest driver of property values, and knowing which are growing faster than others is essential in being a smart land investor.
- But it is critical to find county-level data which offers more localised insight than state land.
- Population is helpful in determining the ‘pathway of growth’ but are just one of many important variables
Why County-Level Population Trends Matter
When people talk about population growth and land demand, they often quote state or national figures. But land markets are inherently local. The broad state numbers rarely tell the full story of where people are actually moving.
County population trends reveal patterns that matter for long-term context. For example, a county that grows faster than its state average may see expanding housing needs, commuter patterns shifting outward, and long-term infrastructure planning—factors that experienced investors watch carefully.
Still, it’s important to remember: growth context is not a prediction. It’s one piece of the picture professionals use alongside zoning, access, utilities, local economics, and due diligence.
How Population Growth Is Typically Measured
County population trends reveal patterns that matter for long-term context. For example, a county that grows faster than its state average may see expanding housing needs, commuter patterns shifting outward, and long-term infrastructure planning—factors that experienced investors watch carefully.
- U.S. population growth: approximately 1.0%–1.5% annually between 2020 and 2024
- Florida statewide growth: approximately 3.3% between 2023 and 2024
- Arizona statewide growth: approximately 1.2%–1.6% annually between 2020 and 2024
These figures set the backdrop for understanding specific county numbers below.
Pinal County, Arizona — Growth Above State and National Averages
Between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, Pinal County’s population increased from about 486,395 to 513,862, roughly a 5.6% growth rate over that year. That is well above both Arizona’s overall growth and the U.S. growth rate.
Pinal sits between Phoenix and Tucson. As those metros expand, Pinal often absorbs spillover population increases. From an educational standpoint, this illustrates how county-level figures can diverge meaningfully from a state average.
In addition to spillover growth, Pinal County has seen several large-scale industrial and manufacturing investments over the past few years. Facilities from companies such as Lucid Motors in Casa Grande and Nikola Corporation in Coolidge have added thousands of direct and indirect jobs to the region. Job creation of this kind tends to increase demand for housing and supporting services over time, which helps explain why population growth in the county has remained elevated.
Source: Arizona Commerce Authority project disclosures; U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including Forms 10-K and 8-K; and official facility announcements by Lucid Motors (Casa Grande, AZ) and Nikola Corporation (Coolidge, AZ).
Polk County, Florida — Above State Average Over Time
Polk County’s official estimates show its population growing from about 725,046 in 2020 to an estimated 818,330 in 2023, reflecting multi-year growth above the national norm.
Recent one-year estimates place Polk’s growth around 3.37%, which aligns with, and sometimes exceeds, Florida’s strong statewide rate.
Polk’s growth reflects Florida’s broader in-migration trends and its position between major metro areas like Tampa and Orlando. This kind of sustained increase provides context for why local planners, employers, and infrastructure investments often focus on expanding counties.
Remember: growth context helps explain broader demand patterns — it does not guarantee any specific land price outcome.
Example Counties in Michigan — More Modest Growth Patterns
Michigan’s statewide population growth has been more modest, often under 1% per year in recent estimates. Many Michigan counties reflect that trend.
Some counties near expanding metro areas, such as Kent County (Grand Rapids region), do show population increases above the state norm. But these patterns are generally more gradual and closer to the U.S. average than dramatic outliers.
This highlights an important point: not all counties grow fast, even within growing states. Local economic conditions, employment opportunities, and quality-of-life factors all play a role.
Example Counties in Pennsylvania — Steady, Uneven Trends
Pennsylvania’s statewide population growth is slower than many Sun Belt states. Some suburban and exurban counties around major metros such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh do grow faster than the state average, but often at modest rates.
For example, counties like Lancaster or Chester have grown incrementally in recent years due to housing shifts and job expansions. These are not explosive numbers, but they help tell a story about regional shifts within a slower-growing state.
The key takeaway: county trends can diverge from state totals, even if they do so modestly.
Example Counties in New Mexico — Subtle Differences
New Mexico’s statewide growth has been slow relative to national averages. Within New Mexico, counties near Albuquerque and Santa Fe have generally held steady or grown slowly, while other counties remain flat or see slight declines.
These are not dramatic stories of explosive growth. Rather, they illustrate that county dynamics vary widely even within a single state. And for land investors, understanding why certain places grow — and others do not — is part of the broader due diligence process.
What These Counties Teach Us About Population Data
Across the counties discussed:
- Some clearly outpace state and national growth (e.g., Pinal and Polk).
- Others illustrate regional subtleties (e.g., Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico examples).
- Growth is a trend indicator, not a guarantee.
Population figures should always be used alongside other metrics, such as economic activity, employment patterns, infrastructure plans, and land-specific due diligence.
Population Growth Alone Is Not a Buying Signal
Population data helps build context, but it should never be used in isolation. Experienced land investors combine demographic trends with:
- Property access and easements
- Zoning and land use planning
- Utility availability
- Tax status and liens
- Title verification
- Local economic drivers
- Long-term infrastructure investment
The strongest decisions come from multiple data points considered together, not one statistic.
Final Thought
Population growth numbers offer valuable insight into where people are choosing to live — and where demand may gradually shift. When county trends consistently outpace state and national growth over time, it can be a meaningful signal in the broader context of land market fundamentals.
But always remember: growth is a context, not a prophecy.
Data source: Population figures referenced in this article are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (annual county, state, and national estimates, July 1 reference dates, Vintage 2024). Figures are used to illustrate comparative, multi-year trends rather than year-specific rankings or forecasts.